Mathematical models for malaria – Jennifer Flegg

Abstract:  The effect of malaria on the developing world is devastating. Each year there are more than 200 million cases and over 400,000 deaths, with children under the age of five the most vulnerable. Ambitious malaria elimination targets have been set by the World Health Organization for 2030. These involve the elimination of the disease in at least 35 countries. However, these malaria elimination targets rest precariously on being able to treat the disease appropriately; a difficult feat with the emergence and spread of antimalarial drug resistance, along with many other challenges. In this talk, I will introduce several statistical and mathematical models that can be used to monitor malaria transmission and to support malaria elimination. For example, I’ll present mechanistic models of disease transmission, statistical models that allow the emergence and spread of antimalarial drug resistance to be monitored, mechanistic models that capture the role of bioclimatic factors on the risk of malaria and optimal geospatial sampling schemes for future malaria surveillance. I will discuss how the results of these models have been used to inform public health policy and support ongoing malaria elimination efforts.