Abstract:<\/p>\n
In general, the rates of infection and removal (whether through recovery or death) are nonlinear functions of the number of infected and susceptible individuals. One of the simplest models for the spread of infectious diseases is the SIR model, which categorizes individuals as susceptible, infectious, recovered or deceased. In this model, the infection rate, governing the transition from susceptible to infected individuals, is given by a linear function of both susceptible and infected populations. Similarly, the removal rate, representing the transition from infected to removed individuals, is a linear function of the number of infected individuals. However, existing research often overlooks the impact of nonlinear infection and removal rates in infection dynamics. This work presents an analytic expression for the number of infected individuals considering nonlinear infection and removal rates. In particular, we examine how the number of infected individuals varies as cases emerge and obtain the expression accounting for the number of infected individuals at each moment. Viruses are microscopic infectious agents that require a host cell for replication. Viral replication occurs in several stages, and the completion time for each stage varies due to differences in the cellular environment. Thus, the time to complete each stage in viral replication is a random variable. However, no analytic expression exists for the viral population at the cellular level when the completion time for each process constituting viral replication is a random variable. This study presents a simplified model of viral replication, treating each stage as a renewal process with independently and identically distributed completion times. Using the proposed model, we derive an analytical formula for viral populations at the cellular level, based on viewing viral replication as a birth-death process. The mean viral count is expressed via probability density functions representing the completion time for each step in the replication process. This work validates the results with stochastic simulations. This study provides a new quantitative framework for understanding viral infection dynamics at host and cellular levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Abstract: In general, the rates of infection and removal (whether through recovery or death) are nonlinear functions of the number of infected and susceptible individuals. One of the simplest models … <\/p>\n