BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Biomedical Mathematics Group - ECPv6.15.20//NONSGML v1.0//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://www.ibs.re.kr/bimag
X-WR-CALDESC:Events for Biomedical Mathematics Group
REFRESH-INTERVAL;VALUE=DURATION:PT1H
X-Robots-Tag:noindex
X-PUBLISHED-TTL:PT1H
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:Asia/Seoul
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:+0900
TZOFFSETTO:+0900
TZNAME:KST
DTSTART:20210101T000000
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Seoul:20221123T160000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Seoul:20221123T170000
DTSTAMP:20260425T113819
CREATED:20220825T012839Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20221119T072455Z
UID:6494-1669219200-1669222800@www.ibs.re.kr
SUMMARY:Assessing the limits of control of Covid-19 outbreaks using agent-based modeling
DESCRIPTION:Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 relies on interactions between humans. Heterogeneity and stochasticity both in human-human interactions and in the transmission of the virus give rise to non-linear infection networks that gain complexity with time. \nWe assessed the limits of control and the effect of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical measures against COVID‐19 outbreaks with a detailed community‐specific agent-based model (GERDA). The demographic and geographic structure of the concrete communities influence the pattern of infection spreading. Stochastic community dynamics and limited vaccination can lead to bimodal outcomes\, rendering predictions about infection spreading and effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions uncertain. \n  \nBy comparing different vaccination strategies\, we found that the herd immunity threshold depends strongly on the applied vaccination strategy.  When vaccine supply is limited\, different vaccination strategies are optimal for the intended goal e.g.\, reducing fatalities or confining an outbreak. Prioritizing highly interactive people diminishes the risk for an infection wave\, while prioritizing the elderly minimizes fatalities. \nThe inherent stochasticity can lead to bimodality in predicting an outbreak in different low-incidence scenarios and\, thereby\, render the effect of limited NPI uncertain.  Further\, we found that for the low-incidence scenarios the reproduction number R0 is not a suitable predictor for the system behavior or the infectiousness of the virus. \nThe developed simulation platform can process and analyze dynamic COVID‐19 epidemiological situations in diverse communities worldwide to predict pathways to population immunity even with limited vaccination.
URL:https://www.ibs.re.kr/bimag/event/2022-11-23-colloquium/
LOCATION:ZOOM ID: 997 8258 4700 (Biomedical Mathematics Online Colloquium)\, (pw: 1234)
CATEGORIES:Biomedical Mathematics Online Colloquium
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/jpeg:https://www.ibs.re.kr/bimag/cms/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/klipp2-250x250-1.jpg
ORGANIZER;CN="Jae Kyoung Kim":MAILTO:jaekkim@kaist.ac.kr
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR