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METHOD:PUBLISH
X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://www.ibs.re.kr/bimag
X-WR-CALDESC:Events for Biomedical Mathematics Group
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X-PUBLISHED-TTL:PT1H
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:Asia/Seoul
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:+0900
TZOFFSETTO:+0900
TZNAME:KST
DTSTART:20220101T000000
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Seoul:20231110T110000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Seoul:20231110T120000
DTSTAMP:20260524T135453
CREATED:20230831T142922Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240728T144105Z
UID:8399-1699614000-1699617600@www.ibs.re.kr
SUMMARY:Matthew Simpson\, Efficient prediction\, estimation and identifiability analysis with mechanistic mathematical models
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Interpreting data using mechanistic mathematical models provides a foundation for discovery and decision-making in all areas of science and engineering. Key steps in using mechanistic mathematical models to interpret data include: (i) identifiability analysis; (ii) parameter estimation; and (iii) model prediction. Here we present a systematic\, computationally efficient likelihood-based workflow that addresses all three steps in a unified way. Recently developed methods for constructing profile-wise prediction intervals enable this workflow and provide the central linkage between different workflow components. These methods propagate profile-likelihood-based confidence sets for model parameters to predictions in a way that isolates how different parameter combinations affect model predictions. We show how to extend these profile-wise prediction intervals to two-dimensional interest parameters\, and then combine profile-wise prediction confidence sets to give an overall prediction confidence set that approximates the full likelihood-based prediction confidence set well. We apply our methods to a range of synthetic data and real-world ecological data describing re-growth of coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef after some external disturbance\, such as a tropical cyclone or coral bleaching event.
URL:https://www.ibs.re.kr/bimag/event/matthew-simpson-efficient-prediction-estimation-and-identifiability-analysis-with-mechanistic-mathematical-models/
LOCATION:ZOOM ID: 997 8258 4700 (Biomedical Mathematics Online Colloquium)\, (pw: 1234)
CATEGORIES:Biomedical Mathematics Online Colloquium
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/jpeg:https://www.ibs.re.kr/bimag/cms/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Matthew-Simpson-e1722177652995.jpeg
ORGANIZER;CN="Jae Kyoung Kim":MAILTO:jaekkim@kaist.ac.kr
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Seoul:20231110T140000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Seoul:20231110T160000
DTSTAMP:20260524T135453
CREATED:20231030T040327Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20231109T000051Z
UID:8661-1699624800-1699632000@www.ibs.re.kr
SUMMARY:Seokjoo Chae\, Uncertainty quantified discovery of chemical reaction systems via Bayesian scientific machine learning
DESCRIPTION:We will discuss about “Uncertainty quantified discovery of chemical reaction systems via Bayesian scientific machine learning.” bioRxiv (2023): 2023-09. \n  \nAbstract \nThe recently proposed Chemical Reaction Neural Network (CRNN) discovers chemical reaction pathways from time resolved species concentration data in a deterministic manner. Since the weights and biases of a CRNN are physically interpretable\, the CRNN acts as a digital twin of a classical chemical reaction network. In this study\, we employ a Bayesian inference analysis coupled with neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) on this digital twin to discover chemical reaction pathways in a probabilistic manner. This allows for estimation of the uncertainty surrounding the learned reaction network. To achieve this\, we propose an algorithm which combines neural ODEs with a preconditioned stochastic gradient langevin descent (pSGLD) Bayesian framework\, and ultimately performs posterior sampling on the neural network weights. We demonstrate the successful implementation of this algorithm on several reaction systems by not only recovering the chemical reaction pathways but also estimating the uncertainty in our predictions. We compare the results of the pSGLD with that of the standard SGLD and show that this optimizer more efficiently and accurately estimates the posterior of the reaction network parameters. Additionally\, we demonstrate how the embedding of scientific knowledge improves extrapolation accuracy by comparing results to purely data-driven machine learning methods. Together\, this provides a new framework for robust\, autonomous Bayesian inference on unknown or complex chemical and biological reaction systems. \n  \n 
URL:https://www.ibs.re.kr/bimag/event/2023-11-10-jc/
LOCATION:B378 Seminar room\, IBS\, 55 Expo-ro Yuseong-gu\, Daejeon\, 34126\, Korea\, Republic of
CATEGORIES:Journal Club
ORGANIZER;CN="Jae Kyoung Kim":MAILTO:jaekkim@kaist.ac.kr
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